AFCON 2025 permutations: What Rwanda, Benin & Libya have to do to join Nigeria and qualify
After the first five matchdays of the qualifying series, Group D remains wide open, with the Cheetahs, Amavubi, and the Mediterranean Knights all still in contention for a spot in the Africa Cup of Nations, with one match to go.
Only three-time African champions Nigeria have secured their qualification, following a 1-1 draw against Gernot Rohr’s side at the Felix Houphouet-Boigny Stadium in Abidjan.
As Monday’s final showdown approaches, the three countries have strong chances of progressing. However, in the end, only one will join the Super Eagles in the North African nation.
The permutations are complex, but this article summarises what each team needs to secure qualification on the final day. As a reminder, Nigeria will host Rwanda, while Benin Republic will face Libya in Tripoli.
What result do Benin need to qualify?
The West Africans are in a strong position, with several pathways to secure the second ticket. Currently, they sit in second place with seven points, having earned two wins and a draw.
One way to secure a spot in the Africa Cup of Nations is by winning or, at the very least, drawing their final match against Libya at the Tripoli Stadium.
In the event of a loss, they must ensure they don't concede more than two goals and score at least once. Rohr’s men won the reverse fixture 2-1, and a similar 2-1 defeat in Tripoli would see them qualify on goal difference across all group matches, as they would be tied on goals scored in their head-to-head encounters.
However, their hopes of returning to the AFCON for the first time in six years would fade if they lose by two goals, as the North Africans would likely qualify on goal difference in head-to-head matches among tied teams.
Since their debut AFCON appearance in Tunisia 2004, Benin Republic has reached the finals four times, with their best performance being a quarter-final finish at Egypt 2019.
What result do Rwanda need to qualify?
The Amavubi will automatically qualify for the competition with a win over Nigeria at the Godswill Akpabio Stadium in Uyo, while hoping Benin lose to Libya.
Torsten Spittler’s side will look to draw inspiration from their 1-0 away victory over Lesotho in June’s 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers as they aim to stun the star-studded Nigerian team.
With Nigeria already qualified for Morocco 2025, the East Africans will be hoping coach Eguavoen fields a weakened team.
If they manage to defeat the 2013 African champions and Benin earn a point against the Libyans, they will fail to qualify and lose the ticket to Rohr’s team on goal difference in head-to-head matches between the two teams.
Rwanda endured a 3-0 defeat to Benin in Abidjan but secured a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture in Kigali. To qualify, they must first win in Uyo and then hope Benin lose.
Like Benin Republic, Rwanda made their AFCON debut in 2004, finishing ninth. Since then, they have failed to qualify for Africa's premier football tournament.
How Libya can qualify for AFCON 2025?
Coach Nasser Al-Hadiri must secure a victory over Benin Republic by at least two goals to earn a spot in the 2025 AFCON, while also hoping Rwanda fails to win in Nigeria.
The North Africans find themselves in this difficult situation after losing three points and three goals to Nigeria, following sanctions from the Confederation of African Football due to the mistreatment of the Nigerian national team.
Nonetheless, their 1-0 away win against Rwanda, coupled with Benin’s draw with the Super Eagles, has revived their hopes of qualifying.
They currently sit at the bottom of Group D with just one win from five matches. If they manage to secure the ticket ahead of Benin and Rwanda, it would be one of the greatest comebacks in African football.
Libya has qualified for the AFCON three times, with their best result being a runners-up finish at the 1982 edition, which they hosted.
