Can Xabi Alonso's Leverkusen knock Bayern off their Bundesliga throne?
With 45 points, Leverkusen had the best first half of a season in their Bundesliga history. It was the third time, after 2001/02 and 2009/10, that Bayer finished the first half of a season top of the table and only the second time that the Werkself have reached this point unbeaten, previously doing so in 2009/10.
But don't count out Bayern, who are also having a great season and have a game in hand over Leverkusen. If the German record champions win this against relegation-threatened 1. FC Union Berlin, they can go within one point of league leaders Leverkusen.
With 41 points after 16 games, Bayern Munich have had their best start to a Bundesliga season in eight years – in 2015/16 under Pep Guardiola, they had 43 points after 16 games. Thomas Tuchel's side have won nine of their last 10 Bundesliga games (L1).
As a result, Bayern – league winners in each of the last 11 seasons – are still the favourites to win the title with the Opta supercomputer. They won the title in 67.1% of the 10,000 current season simulations. While Bayern were also the pre-season title favourites, the Opta supercomputer rated Leverkusen’s chances at just 0.9%.
Now, after a record-breaking start to the season, which has seen Leverkusen become the first German professional football club to go their opening 26 games unbeaten in all competitions (W23 D3), they are involved in a tussle for the Bundesliga title. Currently, they win the Bundesliga title in 32.4% of the Opta supercomputer’s current season simulations. History suggests the supercomputer is right to be slightly wary of their potential title success, however.
But Xabi Alonso’s side certainly have individuals to lead them to their first-ever Bundesliga title. Striker Victor Boniface has been a revelation since signing from Belgian side Union Saint-Gilloise, scoring 10 times and assisting seven more in his first 16 league games. However, he is expected to be out until April due to an adductor injury. This means that they may rely even more on the precocious young talent of Florian Wirtz.
Despite still being only 20, Wirtz is the leading creator from open play in the Bundesliga so far this season (37 chances created from open play). Jeremie Frimpong (32) and Jonas Hoffman (26) have also weighed in with open-play chance creation, while Alex Grimaldo has seven goals and six assists in his 17 appearances.
There is enough to suggest Alonso can do without Boniface, especially if Patrik Schick continues to score as frequently as he has in his previous appearances (6 goals in 7 competitive matches).
Bayern’s solid start to the season on the other hand has been fuelled by goals from summer signing Harry Kane. The England captain has already netted 22 times this Bundesliga season and leads the scoring charts. With five assists also, he’s already outperformed the total goal involvements of Randal Kolo Muani in 2022/23, who had the most goal involvements (26).
He’s also well on course to smash the Bundesliga record for most goals in a debut season – currently 30 by Uwe Seeler in 1963/64 – and will have his sights set on breaking the overall seasonal goal record of 41 set by Robert Lewandowski for Bayern in 2020/21.
Kane has also developed a synergy with teammate Leroy Sane that is reminiscent of Kane's link-up with Son Heung-min at Tottenham. Kane and Sane have set up eight goals for each other – five assists by Sane and three assists by Kane. No other duo in Europe's five major leagues has provided so many goals for one another this season.
While Bayern have the best offence in the league with 52 goals, Leverkusen have scored the second most (47). Alonso's team have also outperformed their Expected Goals value – their differential of +11 between goals scored and expected goals (36) is by far the highest in the league, with Bayern scoring five more goals than expected (47 xG). They are also the two teams in the league with the best chance conversation rate (Bayern - 23%, Leverkusen - 21%).
Defensively, both sides are also the best; Leverkusen have the best defence with 12 goals conceded, and Bayern the second best with 15. However, if the record champions had managed to avoid making individual errors, they would have conceded even fewer.
They have conceded five goals due to errors, which is the highest figure in the league. Leverkusen, on the other hand, have only conceded one goal following an individual error.
Although the Werkself have the highest percentage of possession in the league (62%), they also have the most pressed sequences (258). They have caused 184 turnovers - at least 26 more than any other team. Leverkusen have league bests in quite a few facets, and their 13 goals from set pieces is also a league-high.
It seems as if Alonso has instilled his winning mentality into his team. The best example of this is Exequiel Palacios, who has scored two of his last five Bundesliga goals under Alonso in stoppage time, most recently the winner in a huge 1-0 victory against Augsburg. Before that, he netted the goal that tied the game at Bayern in September 2023.
Alonso's Leverkusen are definitely a force to be reckoned with in the championship battle this season, but Bayern remain favourites for the title, as predicted by the Opta supercomputer.