Hack the Weekend: Wolfsburg and Sevilla face opponents who will cause them problems
That's why Flashscore, in cooperation with a team of analysts from Czech data company 11Hacks, brings you a data-driven overview every Friday about where those (un)expected results might occur in the world of football to help you ultimately hack the weekend.
Wolfsburg vs Augsburg, Saturday - 15:30 CET
Wolfsburg are going through a long-lasting crisis. Their last league win came in mid-December against currently last-placed Darmstadt, which means they have been waiting 10 rounds to get three points again. After four tough games against Dortmund, Frankfurt, Stuttgart and most recently Bayer Leverkusen, they're finally favourites for a match again, but they still have a huge challenge ahead of them.
The style of play of the well-coached Augsburg will cause them problems. Danish coach Jess Thorup orders his team to play in a high block with a quick transition to the attack via as few passes as possible, and data shows that Wolfsburg can't use the free spaces left behind the defence to their advantage. They create very few chances from counter-attacks, scoring only six goals so far this season, the fourth-lowest in the Bundesliga.
While Wolfsburg are undoubtedly a team full of excellent headers of the ball who can threaten the opposition's goal, Augsburg's defence has the potential to nullify this strength. In fact, they are fourth-best in the league aerially.
In the final third, the team's efficiency is much lower, but that's when the team's special strength comes into play - collecting loose balls. That's more bad news for Wolfsburg, because only Borussia Monchengladbach's players are worse in these battles defensively. In addition, the visitors will be missing defender Moritz Jenz along with defensive midfielder Yannick Gerhardt due to suspensions, which is a considerable blow.
Already in their first match against each other at the end of October, Augsburg visibly controlled the game and created significantly better chances, although a close 3-2 win might not suggest that on paper. Wolfsburg boss Niko Kovac now has a knife to his throat and will have to come up with something new to succeed this weekend.
Sevilla vs Celta Vigo, Sunday - 14:00 CET
On Sunday, the two teams that have already changed managers this season will face each other in LaLiga. While Quique Sanchez Flores took over at Sevilla in mid-December, Celta Vigo's new boss has only been in charge for a few days. The successor to the experienced Rafael Benitez is Claudio Giraldez, who has thrived with Celta's third-division reserve team.
Flores's Sevilla are holding on to 14th place and are still giving very erratic performances. Three weeks ago, they lost to Real Madrid by the narrowest possible margin and then managed to beat sixth-placed Real Sociedad in an even match, but spoiled that good impression with a draw at last-placed Almeria. The new coach still hasn't solved the problems in the defensive department, which under his leadership is allowing 1.43 expected goals per game, the fifth-most in the period under review.
Prior to Flores' arrival, Sevilla had huge problems, especially with the defence, as a result of which they were extremely vulnerable to counter-attacks. While this has since been improved, the counter-attacking Celta will still be a difficult test. Giraldez has the offensive transitions down perfectly, and since he doesn't have the time to implement his ideas, he probably won't deviate too much from his established style of play.
What will certainly make his debut easier will be Celta's well-organised set-pieces. In terms of data, only leaders Real Madrid and second-placed Girona are creating better chances in that area, and that's a great weapon. Meanwhile, Sevilla have scored the third-highest number of goals from set pieces after Mallorca and Villarreal.
Utrecht vs Nijmegen, Sunday - 14:30 CET
Although Utrecht are currently eighth in the Eredivisie - in the Conference play-off spots - the middle of the table is extremely balanced and every point is worth a lot. This will be doubly true in this weekend's match against sixth-placed Nijmegen.
Nijmegen won't be easy. The form of both teams is very similar. A good indicator is the metric of expected points, which tracks the quality of chances created and allowed, according to which both teams should have gained almost identical points since December. Moreover, Nijmegen have scored the fifth-highest number of goals in away games this season and will certainly not just come to defend.
Not only can they regularly create a large number of chances from successive attacks and get shots from combinations on the ground, but they can also threaten from crosses when needed. They will probably apply this strategy against Utrecht, who are rather average in the air and regularly allow dangerous chances from such situations. Moreover, Nijmegen will certainly dominate in collecting loose balls, so it is quite possible that they will pin Utrecht in the defensive third and score at a certain stage of the game.