EURO 2024: Data analyst shows Ronaldo's poor performances, salutes Austria's tenacity

"There were two approaches that the teams took. One was modern, bold and fun, the other was pragmatic, defensive," says data analyst Marek Kabat in an interview with Flashscore.

What impressed you most during the Euros in terms of your work as a data analyst? 

"First of all, it's important to mention that this is a short-term tournament, which is always a very short sample for analysts. You can get something out of it, but it's not as strong as a long-term competition. I enjoyed the main groups the most.

"The more the number of teams narrowed down and went to the quarter-finals or semi-finals, I was stymied by the style of some of the teams. It seemed to me that the teams whose game had modern elements, interesting tactical things, were dropping out and on the other hand the teams that practiced more conservative national football were going further."

Was it the performance of the favourites that disappointed you the most?

"Definitely. For my taste, they were unnecessarily cautious. There were two tactical approaches in this tournament. One is more modern, more active, more aggressive, where the players have a clear plan and stick to it. I would put Spain, Germany, Austria, Slovakia or Romania in that category."

And then there's England...

"Yes, a very conservative approach, more defensive, without a clear system or modern elements that we see at club level. England and other countries have relied on the individual quality of their stars. But it wasn't just a case of England. It's disappointing because they chose pragmatism rather than trying to fulfil their huge potential."

Let's break it down more. Why do you think England and France haven't played better football?

"Personally, I would split the assessment of these two countries because they are different cases. The problem I see with England is that coach Gareth Southgate's main strategy to win the Euros was to keep the defence in the midfield, not allow the opponents to create chances and we don't need to invent anything in the attack because we have strong individuals."

It got them to the final, so it worked out well for them, right?

"In some moments when England were losing, it showed that there was always a phase where all the players needed to do was to be a bit more courageous, more active, create pressure and score. But that doesn't mean England were in control of the game. Against Slovakia they were a minute and a half away from elimination and should have been out in the semi-final.

"They've had a lot of luck in the tournament and that finally showed in the final when they had run out."

France didn't play bad football in your opinion?

"Their pragmatic and more cautious system is a long-term thing. They've been successful with it in the past so it's nothing new to be surprised about. If we look purely at the data, the French were much closer to getting further than the English.

"The solution was that they didn't score an open-play goal until the quarter-finals, but that doesn't mean they didn't have chances. They could create them, they were just extremely ineffective. They scored three goals from 7.4 xG and created 3.3 Post-Shot xG, which means their conversion of chances was poor. If we look at the table of the top 10 biggest underperformers (how many goals should have been scored based on their xG or passing), we find six French footballers there."

So if Kylian Mbappe had converted a couple of his chances, would we be admiring him again?

"That's why I said they were better off compared to England and maybe in terms of data they were much closer to participating in the final. In the game against Spain, especially in the second half, they had some promising situations that could have been handled better and were calling for a goal. That's not to say that France played prettier and better football, but if Mbappe had been more successful in finishing, again Didier Deschamps could have succeeded."

It won't happen again for Gareth Southgate, who has resigned from England. Do you believe that with a new coach this selection will start to play better?

"It's not a question of whether I believe that. I stand by the fact that there is no reason why England, with their squad, can't play as well as the Germans or the Spaniards. It's just a matter of how the coach is set up and how good he is, whether he can teach the players his intent. England's main problem was that they didn't have a fundamental game plan and couldn't use the player profiles at their disposal. The likes of Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Phil Foden and Harry Kane have all paid the price."

Prior to the tournament, there was some debate as to whether Cristiano Ronaldo had the talent to keep up with the elite players from Europe and be an indispensable link to the Portuguese team. Has that been confirmed to be true?

"Ronaldo's role in the team is no longer a question or a question mark. It was already obvious before the tournament that in Portugal's case, one player is more than the whole squad and it's a pity that everyone is willing to accept that.

"He may be one of the best players in history, but I think it's a great pity that he can't accept another role. I imagine that as a sub for the last 20 minutes he could be an extremely potent weapon. But he played in the starting line-up and for me it was a wasted potential for the Portuguese team."

There were a number of smaller countries at the championship that played some interesting football. Is there one among them that you think could inspire others?

"For me it was definitely Austria. Based on the qualification data alone, they were the black horse of the tournament for me. They completely outclassed the other teams in the aggression metric, which shows how much a team puts the opponent under pressure. You can see the great contribution of coach Ralf Rangnick there."

EURO 2024 was dominated by the Spaniards, who entertained with their style from the first game. What was most inspiring about it?

"What inspires me the most is their tactical transformation, because they are no longer playing the style they have presented in recent years, when they had a lot of passing and possession of the ball.

"Today's Spain has a quick transition with the ball. Overall, they had the second highest number of shots from counter attacks. Like the Austrians or the Germans, they had a very aggressive defensive game. They clearly had a game built on a strong midfield, which allowed them to dominate and control games."

Plus, they did it with players who don't play for top clubs...

"I think it's because they have a lot of players who are just about to move to the elite clubs. Nico Williams, Dani Olmo and Robin Le Normand have had very good seasons and a move to a top club is only a matter of time for them."

We've all seen what Lamine Yamal has been doing, but what would you say about him from a data analyst's perspective?

"He is absolutely dominant in the metrics. Whether it's shots, touches in the penalty area, dribbles... He's a versatile player and very important to the game around the opponent's penalty area."

Which player from the European Championship would you recommend buying?

"I think Nico Williams and Dani Olmo, who are not playing in the top team yet, should change their jersey after this championship. They have shown that they are already at the top level and it is the perfect time to make a transfer."