Pressure on the Netherlands against Romania in last 16 but not in every sense
So far, the Netherlands have not really come into their own at EURO 2024. In their opener against Poland, Oranje had a lot of possession (65.9%) but that figure dropped drastically against the French (37.4%) and Austria (52.4%).
And where their average passing accuracy usually lies around 88 per cent, the Austrians’ 'gegenpressing' forced the Netherlands to make a lot of mistakes in possession (83.6% passing accuracy), including an early substitution for PSV midfielder Joey Veerman, who lost possession 16 times in just 35 minutes (with 55% of his touches) and recorded a passing accuracy of just 47.4 per cent (9/19).
Where Austria’s pressing worked wonders, Ronald Koeman’s side seem to be on the other side of the spectrum. Looking at some metrics that show a team’s proficiency in putting pressure on their opponents, Oranje aren’t doing that well.
Only tournament debutants Georgia (9) have recorded fewer High Turnovers than the Netherlands (10) - with a High Turnover defined as an attack following a ball recovery within 40 metres of the opposition goal. When it comes to PPDA, passes per defensive action, ten sides do as well or better than the Netherlands (14.1 opposition passes before Oranje make a defensive action).
Interestingly, Romania might be even worse in that regard. Only Albania (24.4) and Slovenia (28.0), both already eliminated from EURO 2024, have recorded a higher PPDA than Romania (19.3) - meaning that they only make one defensive action every 19.3 opposition passes.
Luckily, one Dutch player seems to break free from the rest of his side’s inability to put their opponents under pressure. Among all players in the group stages of EURO2024, only Denmark’s Rasmus Hojlund (129) has recorded more High Pressures in the opposition final third than the Netherlands’ Memphis Depay (108).
So in what way can the Netherlands beat Romania? And which players do they need to look out for?
Oranje will first need to find a way to profit from Romania’s poor passing numbers: among all teams in the group stage, the Romanians have recorded the lowest passing accuracy (74.7%). They have also played 150 long balls but saw a tournament-low 34.7 per cent of those actually find a teammate (52).
If the Netherlands are to get something from their Round of 16 encounter, they will have to make sure that they are much more accurate in possession and regain any second balls quickly.
One of Romania’s weapons are their attempts from long range. Edward Iordanescu’s side stunned Ukraine with two shots from distance - one by captain Nicolae Stanciu and one by his midfield colleague Razvan Marin.
Just four teams at the the tournament have recorded more shots on target from outside the box than Romania (6), while their two goals from distance is a joint record at the tournament so far (along with Switzerland, Germany and Turkey).
Of course, it’s not a coincidence that Stanciu already scored from long-range, as the Romanian is one of the most enthusiastic shooters from distance. In fact, in the 2023/24 Saudi Pro League, only Cristiano Ronaldo was able to keep up with the midfielder’s attempts (a joint-high 55).
Especially Razvan Marin’s performances this summer have been surprising. The midfielder broke through at Belgian side Standard Liege, before moving to Ajax. In the Netherlands, Marin failed to gain a place in the starting XI and was quickly sent off to Italy.
In the Italian Serie A, however, Razvan Marin’s numbers have been excellent. Among all midfielders in the Italian top flight since the start of the 2020/21 campaign, only Hakan Calhanoglu and Lorenzo Pellegrini have created more chances from set play than the Romanian (115).
But what if the Netherlands succeed at keeping Stanciu away from any dangerous shooting positions and prevent Marin from being able to take free kicks in dangerous areas?
Well, in that case, the Oranje players will still need to find a way to get past Romania goalkeeper Florin Nita. The 35-year-old has been one of this tournament’s busiest men, with only group stage star Giorgi Mamardashvili having to make more saves in his country’s first three Euro matches, with the Netherlands’ Bart Verbruggen also appearing high up in that chart with the equal third-most saves.
Nita’s great performances at the European Championship have come off the back of a great season for him in the Turkish Superlig with Gaziantep. The Romanian has prevented 8.0 goals, based on Opta’s Expected Goals model, the second-best performance for any goalkeeper in the Turkish top-flight (45 goals conceded excluding own goals from 53.0 Expected Goals on Target conceded).
Add to those numbers Nita’s outstanding penalty-killing stats (just 60% of the last 25 penalties he’s faced in all competitions have been converted) and the Netherlands will be facing a tough opponent in Romania. No pressure. Literally.