Hack the Weekend: Surprising Sevilla go to Real Sociedad looking for points
That's why Flashscore, in cooperation with a team of analysts from Czech data company 11Hacks, is bringing you a data-driven overview every Friday about where those (un)expected results might occur in the wide world of football to help you ultimately hack the weekend.
Athletico-PR - Vasco, Saturday 23:30 CET
Athletico Paranaense have not won once in their last five games and have only three draws, while Vasco da Gama have not tasted a single defeat in the same period and have won three straight. With 11 points, they are only one point away from qualifying for the Copa Sudamericana group stage with four rounds to go in Brazil's Serie A. Athletico, on the other hand, are six points away from qualifying for the Liberators' Cup because of their poor results.
The match is therefore on the side of Vasco, whose recent performances, moreover, are no accident. While Athletico Paranaense is an extremely good team that should be fighting for the title according to mathematical models, Vasco would be much better suited to the top half of the table by the same standards.
By the metrics of expected goals, Vasco have the league's fifth-best attack and a roughly league-average defence, but their reliable goalkeeper Leo Jardim has been saving them this year.
Athletico is one of the most counter-attacking teams in the competition but Vasco, playing in a low block most of the time, can defend breaks well and therefore has a decent chance of snatching a surprise result in this one.
Real Sociedad - Sevilla, Sunday 16:15 CET
Few football fans have been going through such an emotional rollercoaster lately as those flying the colours of Spanish side Sevilla. Although the team from Andalusia stumbled through a results crisis last season, which resulted in a 12th-place finish in LaLiga, they put it all behind them after securing their seventh Europa League triumph. However, that euphoria did not last long.
As the new season began, coach Jose Mendilibar's side failed to win in the league as well as in the Champions League group stage against Arsenal, PSV and Lens. As a result, in mid-October, the club's management dismissed the Spanish coach and replaced him with Diego Alonso, who last led the Uruguay national team.
The latter oversaw a run of four league draws and will now be looking to surprise sixth-placed Real Sociedad in an away game. Although there is a gap of seven positions between the two teams in the table, it should be a much more even encounter on the pitch than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
For example, according to the expected points metric, which assesses the quality of chances created and conceded, Real Sociedad should be around eighth place and Sevilla just two places lower. Their offences in particular are very similar. They generate 1.3 expected goals per game, which is again a figure around the league average.
Both teams will want to play attractive and proactive football on Sunday. Sociedad coach Imanol Alguacil prescribes his team the highest defensive block in all of LaLiga. He manages to effectively break down the opponent's passing game with intense pressing and his team often plays with the ball.
From the small sample of games so far, it seems that Alonso will ask his charges to play primarily with the ball and with a high number of passes, but he is also well aware of how strong his team is in the air and wants to take advantage of that. In fact, Sevilla have long created most of their chances in the final third of the pitch via centre backs that are very dangerous going forward.
Defending is Sociedad's Achilles heel, however, not only from open play but also from set pieces - only Granada, Rayo Vallecano and Almeria are worse from these scenarios. What's more, Sevilla are second best in LaLiga in set piece execution. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the visitors get something from San Sebastian.
Lech Poznan - Widzew Lodz, Sunday 17:30 CET
Third-placed Lech Poznan will welcome a mid-table opponent in the 16th round of the Polish Ekstraklasa on Sunday and are expected to at least defend their current position in the table. However, it is important they remain wary, as Widzew Lodz definitely have the potential to trouble the favoured opponent.
In fact, the two teams are once again much closer than their positions suggest. They are very similar in metrics assessing the quality and volume of chances created and allowed.
In the not-so-offensive Polish league, they are currently both hovering around 1.1 expected goals (xG) per game, which, believe it or not, is above average. The difference between them lies in the fact that while Widzew have scored 15 goals from 16 xG, Lech's players have notched as many as 27 (excluding penalties).
Adriel Ba Loua and Mikael Ishak have scored a combined six goals more than their expected value, with neither of them being considered elite finishers in the long run. Both are having the season of their lives in terms of converting chances and over time their shooting potency will very likely regress to its former level.
Both teams are also essentially identical in the most important defensive metrics. But where Widzew have a visible edge is in their goalkeeper. While Bartosz Mrozek is one of the worst goalkeepers in the Ekstraklasa in terms of the models evaluating the quality of saves, Slovak Henrich Ravas is one of the mainstays of his team and contributes to good performances not only with saves but also his footwork.
Lech's main weapon is their excellent handling of set pieces but Widzew has defended those very well this season. Only Jagiellonia and Pogon are better in this respect. It is also worth mentioning that Lech will not have much time to play the ball, as their opponent on Sunday is one of the most intense and best-pressing sides in the league.