Who are the best budget defenders to pick? And who is the best captain candidate for opening weekend?
Fantasy Football Hub’s artificial intelligence helps answer those big questions! You can also get your FPL team rated right here for free!
Haaland or Salah?
An increase in price for Erling Haaland this season from £14million to £15million has done exactly what Fantasy Premier League intended it to do - divide opinion on whether to start the season with the Manchester City striker or not.
Last campaign he was over 80% owned for Gameweek One, but at the time of writing, he currently sits in less than 37% of current drafts. That number is quickly increasing, following a hat-trick in the 4-2 win against Chelsea in the final game of their US pre-season tour, with Chelsea incidentally their opponents on the opening day of the Premier League season.
The increased price tag for Haaland does make it harder to justify his automatic inclusion, despite winning the Golden Boot in consecutive Premier League seasons. The general conclusion among engaged FPL players is that if you opt against Erling Haaland, then you must include the second most expensive player in the game, Mohamed Salah, who costs £12.5million.
Haaland is predicted by AI to score 30.9 points over the first four gameweeks, 0.2 points ahead of Mohamed Salah. Haaland has the higher gameweek predicted points in three of the opening four gameweeks too.
Best Budget Defenders?
This season we have a wealth of defensive options priced at £4.5million, with Crystal Palace’s Jochaim Andersen, Newcastle United’s Dan Burn and Aston Villa’s Ezri Konsa dominating the pre-season template.
AI predictions favour Tino Livramento (£4.5m) from the Magpies' defence, predicted to score 13.5 points over the first four gameweeks. He looks set to start the season at right-back following Kieran’s Trippier late return to pre-season training. Fulham defender Aontonee Robinson (£4.5m) is also predicted to score 13.5 points and rotates nicely with Everton’s Vitali Mykolenko (£4.5m), allowing you to bench them for their more difficult fixtures.
Ordinarily in FPL it’s rare to find defenders priced at £4million who are likely to be regular starters for their clubs, but there’s greater depth at this price point for this campaign. Most defenders, particularly centre-backs, from the promoted teams, are priced at £4.0 million. AI favours Leicester City’s Wout Faes who is predicted to score 11.2 points in the opening four gameweeks.
Keep an eye on Brighton full-back Valentin Barco also at this price, who should deputise for the injured Pervis Estupinan in the opening phase of the season.
Gameweek One non-starters?
This summer has been a busy one for Premier League stars, with players representing their countries on international duty at EURO 2024, Copa America and the Olympic Games.
Inevitably, late returns from these competitions will have an impact on FPL Gameweek One, with some players unlikely to be fit enough to start the season after extended breaks.
City manager Pep Guardiola has already stated that those players returning from international duty will not feature during pre-season, including in the FA Community Shield game against Manchester United on Saturday, August 10th. They will gradually be reintroduced with limited minutes against Chelsea in Gameweek One and Ipswich Town in Gameweek Two.
This means that Manchester City playmakers Phil Foden (£9.5m) and Kevin De Bruyne (£9.5m) should be avoided. At half a million more, Spurs talisman Son Heung-Min ought to be considered, predicted to score 24.8 points in the opening four gameweeks.
This season's Cole Palmer?
Cole Palmer was a game-changer in FPL last season, making a mockery of his initial £5.0million price tag to become the highest-scoring FPL player of the season. His move from Manchester City to Chelsea propelled him to become a regular starter, producing a remarkable 7.2 points per match. So, who can do the same this time around?
Manchester City’s Oscar Bobb (£5.0m) has the potential to replicate Palmer: he has two goals and three assists in pre-season and should at least start Gameweek One, while Foden and De Bruyne make their way back into the Manchester City starting lineup. Over on the red side of Manchester, United midfielder Amad Diallo (£5.0m) has accumulated two goals and one assist so far in pre-season, establishing himself on the right wing.
It’s Aston Villa’s Leon Bailey (£6.5m) who leads the AI predictions for the opening four gameweeks. With the departure of Moussa Diaby, Bailey will be the side's first-choice winger and he hit double digits for goals and assists last season from just over 2,000 minutes of action.
Keep an eye on Chelsea’s Christopher Nkunku (£6.5m) at this price point too, he’s been reclassified to a midfielder for this campaign and is predicted to score 18.7 points.
Best Captain Pick?
We are spoilt for choice when it comes to captaincy in Gameweek One, with Manchester City’s tricky away trip to Chelsea throwing the conversation wide open. Haaland still sits second in the AI predictions, on 7.2 points. Incidentally, he’s scored a brace on opening weekend in his previous two Premier League seasons.
Son sits fifth in the predictions on 6.3 points for the trip to promoted Leicester City. It’s a fixture which normally sees goals, with Son producing nine goals and four assists in 14 Premier League appearances.
Newcastle United’s Alexander Isak is predicted to score 6.6 points when promoted Southampton visit St James’ Park. He finished last season in red-hot form, scoring nine goals in his final ten games.
Bukayo Saka is third on 6.8 predicted points as Arsenal entertain Wolves, but he only arrived back into their pre-season training in early August. Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah takes top billing though, predicted to score 7.6 points for the trip to promoted Ipswich Town. He has never blanked in Gameweek One in a Liverpool shirt, scoring on average 11.8 points per game.
He has double-digit scores from five out of five opening weekend appearances against promoted sides.
