Twenty20 World Cup Roundtable Part One - who will progress to the Super 12 stage?

In Part One of this roundtable discussion, our in-house cricket heads spoke about the first group stage of the World Cup, which starts on October 16th, and who they expect to progress to the Super 12 stage to meet the tournament favourites Australia, England and India.

A bit of background to start, though. The tournament is divided into two separate group stages. The first stage sees two groups of four nations playing in a round-robin of three matches each.

Group A contains Sri Lanka, Namibia, the Netherlands and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Group B contains West Indies, Ireland, Scotland and Zimbabwe. 

The top two teams from each group progress to the second group stage - the Super 12 - where two groups of six teams play another round-robin of five matches apiece.

In the second stage, Group One contains hosts Australia, England, New Zealand, and Afghanistan, plus the winner of Group A and runner-up in Group B. Group Two contains India, Pakistan, South Africa, and Bangladesh, plus the winner of Group B and runner-up in Group A.

The top two teams from those groups then progress to the semi-finals, followed by the final on November 13th at the colossal MCG in Melbourne. 

World Cup Roundtable Part One

Flashcore's Senior News Editor Joshua Donaldson led the chat, opening up about what we can expect in terms of the atmosphere at the tournament.

JD: Firstly guys, the crowd at the Australia - West Indies game the other day. There were like four people and a dog there.

Pat Dempsey: Exactly, I turned it on and was thinking - are there restrictions on attendance still? 

JD: I thought that as well. Pat, you’re Australian, so you might know. Is there a real interest and vibe for the tournament over there or is it more subdued?

PD: I don't know exactly because I'm not there on the ground but it’s certainly not pandemonium yet. Regarding the West Indies warmup series, there has been a problem getting people to the bilateral Twenty20 and ODI series recently.

There was a series (of five T20Is) with Sri Lanka towards the end of the last Australian summer and no one was really going. Fans are more test cricket oriented there and are like - why would I go see Windies in a warm-up? Also, that game was on the Gold Coast so not at a major stadium in a big city.

JD: True. In terms of what we can expect from the venues, just so you guys know, we’ve got Adelaide, Brisbane (the Gabba), Geelong (Kardinia Park), Bellerive in Hobart, the MCG, the SCG (Sydney) and Optus Stadium in Perth, all hosting games.

From my experience of watching the Big Bash and international cricket in Australia, they tend to be pacier wickets with big outfields. What do you think we can expect from the venues? Is there one that stands out as being a run-fest with a slower pitch maybe?

PD: I think Bellerive (Hobart) could be a big scorer because it's quite small. That one could see some large totals being posted. 

JD: Right, because that’s quite a narrow field, quite short square of the wicket. Adelaide is another like that, you get quite short boundaries to the side.

I think it’s quite interesting that we had a spin-friendly tournament last year in the UAE and now we’ve got pretty much paceman's wickets with drop-in pitches in at least three of the grounds (MCG, Adelaide, and Perth).

What we should get, eventually, is packed houses - it’s a sports-loving, cricket-mad place - and it will be a completely different atmosphere to last year in the UAE, so I'm interested to see how that plays out. 

Tolga Akdeniz: Another thing that will be different from the last World Cup, conditions-wise, is that we don’t have as much of an evening dew factor as in the UAE or in the subcontinent, which inclines teams to want to bat second and chase. Last year, that was a huge decider in the tournament.

PD: Right, it was almost like whoever won the toss won the game and for Australia, that was a big reason for their eventual victory last year. That could mean we have a more weighted tournament in terms of the victories coming from teams batting first and second.

JD: Here’s hoping! Another interesting question of the first two weeks of the tournament, specifically, is how big the crowds are going to be for non-Australia games and associate member games. Do you guys think they’ll pick up? I don't know what ticket sales are like. But I’d assume you can still get one - actually, I’ll check right now.

TA: I have no idea - but obviously if it’s an associate member, or say Afghanistan, no offence to them, but if Afghanistan is playing Sri Lanka or something, I think it will be relatively quiet at the start, but it will definitely pick up.

JD: Quite interestingly, the opening game is in Geelong.

PD: I think that's why they are using Geelong for those early tournament games - because they aren’t expecting as many people.

JD: I mean you can literally get a ticket still for 5 dollars (for a child) and the cheapest adult ticket you can get is 20 dollars - which you can still get up to ten of. That suggests that interest isn’t too high at the moment. Things will inevitably pick up but it looks like you can still get tickets for the final as well - that’s at the MCG, which is a 100,000-seater, so that's not hugely surprising. 

As we are talking about the opening stages of the tournament, the first group stage is with the four associate members (Scotland, Namibia, the Netherlands, UAE) and the four other full ICC members (Sri Lanka, West Indies, Ireland, Zimbabwe). Who could cause a surprise out of those teams? Or what do we expect to happen?

PD: I’ve got two predictions - I think Sri Lanka is gonna breeze through their group (A) and potentially ruffle a few feathers further on, they’ve just come off winning the Asia Cup and so have a bit of momentum and they have some handy players - two good spinners, in particular, in Hasaranga and Theekshana.

And, I say this cautiously, but I also think the Windies (the West Indies) could not make it out of their group (B).

JD: Interesting, why do you think West Indies might struggle?

PD: I think they look like a bit of a shambles at the moment. Shimron Hetmyer (one of their key batsmen) missed his plane and they’ve now kicked him out of the squad, that’s a huge loss. They didn’t look great against Australia the other day either. This is a left-field prediction for the first stage - I think one of the bigger dogs is going to fall at the first hurdle and I think West Indies is the one that might not make it through.

TA: I still think both those teams - Sri Lanka and West Indies - will have enough, though. I just think they are better than whoever else they will play. 

JD: I think you’re probably right, Tolga. For me, the West Indies have enough power to get through comfortably. Their Bowling attack is well-suited to Australian conditions more than say, Zimbabwe and the others in the group. And you just have to get through as either winners or runners-up in the group so can afford to slip up and lose a game along the way. Away from Sri Lanka and West Indies, in both groups, you also have a pretty competitive field of teams who can all beat each other. 

Of the rest, the one who stands out to me and who I think could make a run, is Namibia. I look at them and see a team that progressed past this round last year and have done quite a bit behind the scenes to improve their T20 skillset, linking up with Lahore Qalandars (in the PSL) and creating a Namibian League to improve their setup. And not only that, but they have someone like David Weise who can definitely win you games with bat and ball and has a lot of experience around the world. They have some interesting players in their squad and I’d like to see them do well.

Other than that, Ireland tend to do well in these stages. I don’t see Scotland doing much although their team is getting better. They have a lot of County pros from England. Hampshire’s very own Brad Wheal flying the Saltire, too. 

Looking at the groups - with four to get through - you’re probably looking at Sri Lanka winning Group A and a toss-up between Namibia and the Netherlands for the second spot. Although having watched a bit of the Netherlands this year, they played England and it was an absolute massacre. It was a tough watch even for an England fan. 

PD: What did they score? Something crazy wasn’t it… 

Tolga: It was close to 500 in one of the One Dayers.

JD: Yeah it was a world-record total! So for me, Sri Lanka and Namibia, probably, from Group A. And in Group B, West Indies should walk it. 

PD: They really should, yes. 

JD: I just don’t see them not getting through like you predicted might happen, Pat. The Hetmyer situation is interesting and, just to touch on it a bit more, the question is - is it, A: a shambles like you said, Pat? Or is it, B: showing a sort of professionalism in the squad that you don’t normally see with the West Indies? 

PD: That’s a good point actually, and it ties into how they treated the Andre Russell and Sunil Narine situation - saying, look we don’t want to pick these guys because they’ve messed us around too much over the years. So maybe it is, similarly, imposing a professionality in removing Hetmyer from the squad. Maybe that, in fact, bodes well for them.

TA: I think there is a fine line with it. With Russell and Narine not going, I can sort of understand it because of the history. Hetmyer has had issues previously, not being picked because of his fitness. Maybe if this was his first time they might have just looked past it. But seeing as it’s multiple offences, first his fitness now he’s missing his plane to Australia, I can understand it, too. But he is one of their better players so it’s about striking that fine line between being professional and giving yourself the best chance at the tournament. 

JD: Yeah but when you’ve got Kyle Meyers hitting a six over extra-cover off the back front off Cameron Green, then, do you need him?

PD: That was a gorgeous shot! I do wonder if they do look a bit green with so many picked out of left field, it does seem like they are building a new team a little too late maybe. 

JD: It feels like the West Indies have been in the perpetual construction of a team for the last five years or so. 

PD: It's like a drawn-out generational change.

JD: Yeah, like they are constantly looking for a new set of players for the side.

TA: And it’s a brand - the cricket they play. Every single batman who comes in just stands and delivers. They haven’t got anyone who rotates the strike in the middle, no one who looks for singles and twos. Once they’re done with the power play, they are done. They just clog up in the middle.

They need to find someone who is more diminutive in the middle, just to keep the scoreboard ticking over. When they played England in that series in the West Indies, they would start well every time and then England would bring in the spinners - Moeen Ali or Adil Rashid - and they would just get stuck. Spin really clogs them down.

PD: I think that’s gonna rest on their captain Nick Pooran, whether he can be their anchor, so to speak, through the middle of the innings. He’s now, somewhat suddenly, one of their most experienced players as well.

JD: Talking about that series with England, didn't they beat England? Yeah, they did, 3-2. 

TA: Yeah but their game style in that series was the same every match. Every time they lost, it was because they just got clogged up in the middle. Their batsmen just stand and deliver. When Rovman Powell came in towards the end of innings he would just tee off and that’s fine when it comes off but against top teams in tournaments where there will be different conditions, you need something else.

JD: Looking even further back, a good example of what you’re saying Tolga, the last time England and West Indies met before that series was at the last World Cup in the Super 12 stage and England bowled out Windies for 55. If I remember it well, it was the first game of the tournament for England and the West Indies just kept going at them and they just crumbled. 

You look at the two top scorers for them in that game, Chris Gayle - gone now. And Hetmyer - also gone as we said. They are a different breed now so it will be interesting to see how they go, but I do think they should still walk the first group, though. For all their issues, I can’t see them slipping up against Scotland, Zimbabwe and Ireland.

PD: Again, they really should, I’m more saying as a left-field prediction if you have one of the bigger sides having a complete implosion at this World Cup, I can see it being them.

JD: Right, a bit like France can do at the World Cup sometimes in football.

PD: Exactly, they seem temperamental. But, coming back to the pitches in Australia, with the ball coming on quite quickly in pace-friendly conditions if you are that stand-and-deliver type of batsman, as many of them are, it can just come off, can’t it?

JD: Very true, we’ve definitely seen that before.

More to come...

So, the guys are largely expecting Sri Lanka and West Indies to comfortably walk through to the Super 12 stage but exactly who joins them is a bit harder to predict. Namibia and Ireland look the most likely but it should be a close contest to tie up those second-place spots in both Group A and B.

Join us for Part Two of this roundtable discussion to hear about who the guys expect to go on and win the tournament and which players could light the tournament up along the way to the final.